Fuzzy numbers etc.

In a package of stories about a US plan to put missile batteries in four Gulf countries as a defence against Iran, a summary box said that Patriot missiles stationed in Saudi Arabia in 1991 during the Kuwait war had a 70% success rate against incoming Iraqi Scud missiles, and those in Israel had a 40% success rate. We should have noted that these figures – cited in a promotional document from the ­Patriot’s maker, Raytheon, and ­originating from the US army – have been widely challenged (Missile ­defence, 1 February, page 5).

In a compilation of reactions to Tony Blair’s appearance before the Iraq inquiry one comment said: ­”Current UN estimates are of 5 million Iraqi orphans, holding the UK and the US responsible.” This would mean about 18% of Iraq’s 28 million people are orphans. The UN has ­issued no such estimate; many statistics ­covering Iraqis affected by the 2003 invasion and its aftermath are in dispute, with the conflict itself making methodical studies difficult. The 5 million figure is the highest of a range of estimates to have emanated from Iraqi officials or government bodies since 2007-2008 (Experts ­analyse Blair’s performance, 30 ­January, page 7). Link to both

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